Predicting MLB Outcomes

Does scoring first lead to wins in Major League Baseball games?

More than half of all initial leads occur in the 1st inning

On average, scoring first translates to at least a 59% chance of winning

Initial Lead Timing:

Early leads are the most common, but still improve win probability

Compared to Visitors, Home teams always have a greater chance of winning when an initial lead happens in the same inning

This quantifies an effect of Home Field Advantage in regular season games

Does a larger initial lead increase win percentage even more?

Most initial leads are small, with more than half being one or two runs

A 2 run initial lead improves odds by over 10% from a 1 run lead

Even a one-run lead provides an advantage, while larger initial leads are difficult to overcome.
Additional runs are harder to come by, but lead to better chances of winning.

Interactive Dashboard

Explore the machine learning predictions interactively. Hover over specific inning and lead size combinations to see predicted win probabilities.

The zigzag pattern illustrates the influence of home-field advantage between top and bottom halves of innings

Larger and later first leads substantially increased expected win probability

Research Questions

Does scoring first in a Major League Baseball game increase a team's chances of winning?

Can game outcomes be predicted based on the inning and size of the first lead?

Key Findings

The team that scores first wins approximately two-thirds of MLB games.

Early scoring provides a measurable advantage, but win probability depends heavily on inning and run differential.

Machine learning predictions were cautious in the early innings but increasingly reflected historical expectations as games progressed.